The girls’ state basketball tournament tips off on Monday morning at Wells Fargo Arena, and top-ranked Johnston is the favorite to capture its fourth Class 5A championship in six seasons.
The Dragons are an incredible 141-6 since the start of the 2019-20 campaign, when their dynasty began. They weren’t exactly bad in the previous four seasons either, going a combined 85-15 during that stretch but failing to win any crowns.
That means Johnston has compiled a 226-21 record over the last decade. That’s quite a run–and it doesn’t appear to be ending anytime soon.
The Dragons are one of four teams from the CIML Conference in the Class 5A field, and we could have an all-CIML semifinal doubleheader on Thursday. I do foresee a CIML team cutting down the nets on Friday night, but will it be the Dragons or one of their league rivals? (See below for my entire bracket.)
For now, though, let’s break down Monday’s slate of games. Here are Ankeny Fanatic’s predictions for the quarterfinals:
No. 1 Johnston (23-0) vs. No. 8 Iowa City Liberty (17-6): The Dragons own a 49-game winning streak and are seeking to complete their third unbeaten season in four years. They have reached the title game in each of the last five seasons, winning their quarterfinal games by an average margin of 14.2 points–including routs by 22 and 29 points in the last two tournaments. Johnston has had only three games decided by single digits this season–two against Dowling Catholic and one against Waukee Northwest. Iowa City Liberty boasts one of the state’s best players in junior forward Natalie Ramsey, who averages a double-double of 22.8 points and 10.5 rebounds. She had 40 points and 16 boards in a regional final against Iowa City High, going 5-of-5 from behind the arc. But the Lightning won’t be able to match up with Johnston’s athleticism at all five positions–because no team in the state has been able to do that over the last two seasons. Prediction: Johnston 72, Iowa City Liberty 50.
No. 4 Ankeny Centennial (16-7) vs. No. 5 Pleasant Valley (19-4): This is the only rematch of a previous game this season in the quarterfinals. The Jaguars opened the 2024-25 campaign with a 39-26 win over Pleasant Valley on Nov. 30 at Cedar Rapids. Centennial won despite shooting just 27.3 percent from the field (15-of-55) against the Spartans’ zone defense, which can be difficult to solve. The Jaguars outrebounded Pleasant Valley by a 34-25 margin and also forced 20 turnovers, allowing them to overcome their offensive struggles. The Spartans, who are riding an eight-game winning streak, own a pair of victories over fellow state qualifier Davenport North. They advanced to the tournament with a 47-37 win over No. 9 Waukee, which split two meetings against Centennial late in the season. Pleasant Valley’s Quinn Vice, who had eight points and nine rebounds in the first meeting, will play at Drake next year alongside Centennial’s Mya Crawford. The Spartans have a talented point guard as well in Class 5A assists leader Reagan Pagniano, but look for Mya to earn some bragging rights over her future teammate. Prediction: Ankeny Centennial 41, Pleasant Valley 35.
No. 2 Dowling Catholic (20-3) vs. No. 7 Davenport North (19-4): The Maroons have won seven straight games since taking Johnston down to the wire before dropping a 64-62 decision on Jan. 24, including an 83-50 rout over Waukee Northwest on Feb. 7. Davenport North barely survived in a regional final, overcoming a 29-point barrage by Karis Finley to edge Cedar Falls, 48-46. The Wildcats are led by a pair of Division I recruits in Journey Houston (20.4 ppg) and Divine Bourrage (18.7), but no other North player averages in double figures and the team went 0-3 against other squads in the Class 5A field–losing those three games by a total of 53 points. Dowling has a more balanced offensive attack and is fully capable of slowing down the Wildcats’ dynamic duo. Ava Zediker is a superb on-ball defender, while 6-foot-2 junior Ellie Muller leads Class 5A in both rebounding (257) and blocks (77). Look for the Maroons to move one step closer to a potential title-game rematch against Johnston. Prediction: Dowling Catholic 56, Davenport North 48.
No. 3 Waukee Northwest (18-4) vs. No. 6 Cedar Rapids Prairie (20-4): After going a pedestrian 33-34 over the previous three seasons, the Wolves made a big jump in their fourth year as a varsity program, earning a third-place finish in the state’s best conference and qualifying for state for the first time under coach Sam Powell. All of Northwest’s losses came to Johnston and Dowling Catholic; the Wolves went a perfect 18-0 against the rest of the teams on their schedule. Northwest held off a fourth-quarter rally by Ankeny in a regional final and will now try to squelch an upset bid by Cedar Rapids Prairie, which rebounded from back-to-back losses to Cedar Rapids Washington and Johnston in mid-February to earn its first state tournament berth since 2020. Prairie has four players averaging between 15.7 and 11.0 points, while Northwest relies heavily on guards Romey Croatt and Vana Bilic–who both shoot better than 40 percent from behind the arc and have combined for 103 3-pointers. The last quarterfinal could be the best game of the day. Prediction: Waukee Northwest 58, Cedar Rapids Prairie 57.
