A year ago, Waukee stormed to the Class 5A girls’ basketball title in dominant fashion, winning its three games at Wells Fargo Arena by 23, 21 and 28 points.
Now, another CIML school is poised to make some history as well.
Top-ranked Johnston, which won the state championship in 2020 before losing a title-game rematch against Waukee last year, enters the tournament with a 23-0 record. The Dragons will try to become the first team ever in Class 5A to go undefeated.
Johnston has posted an average winning margin of 33.5 points while playing a difficult schedule. The Dragons own eight wins against 2022 state qualifiers and 14 victories against teams over .500, which is tied for most in the state.
So yes, it appears to be Johnston’s tournament to lose. From what I have seen, I would not bet against the Dragons. (See below for my bracket.) They just look like a state championship team.
But for now, let’s break down Monday’s slate of games. Here are Ankeny Fanatic’s predictions for the quarterfinals:
No. 1 Johnston (23-0) vs. No. 8 Dowling Catholic (18-6): The Dragons have already defeated Dowling twice, 57-41 on Jan. 31 and 60-28 on Feb. 11. Johnston got off to a fast start in both games, building leads of 16-2 and 16-4 after the first quarter, and the Maroons never recovered. Anna Gossling went 8-of-9 from the field and scored 17 points in the second meeting at Johnston. She had 12 points in the earlier matchup at Dowling, when four Johnston players scored in double figures. Marin Heller had 17 points for Dowling in the first game, but was then held to just six points in the rematch, when the Maroons shot just 31.4 percent from the field (11-of-35). Heller is one of four freshmen in Dowling’s eight-player rotation, so the Maroons appear to have a bright future. But after losing to Waukee in last year’s quarterfinals, Dowling is likely headed for another early exit. The Dragons just have too much talent and experience. Prediction: Johnston 59, Dowling 35.
No. 4 Pleasant Valley (21-2) vs. No. 5 Iowa City High (19-4): The Little Hawks boast one of the state’s best players in junior Kelsey Joens, who averages 21.5 points and has made 58 3-point goals. She had 19 points in the regional final as Iowa City High avenged one of its losses with a 59-51 victory over Linn-Mar (Marion). Pleasant Valley overcame a 30-point effort by Iowa recruit Hannah Stuelke to beat Cedar Rapids Washington, 71-66, in the regional final. The Spartans outscored Washington in the fourth quarter, 19-8, to erase a 58-52 deficit. Junior Halle Vice, who helped lead Pleasant Valley to a state volleyball crown last fall, matched Stuelke with 30 points of her own. The Spartans’ only loss to an Iowa opponent came at North Scott, 46-37, on Dec. 7. Pleasant Valley’s other loss came to Rock Island, 42-41, in the Iowa-Illinois Shootout on Jan. 8. The Spartans are riding a 12-game winning streak, but they simply haven’t played as many strong opponents as Iowa City High–which owns a pair of wins over Waterloo West and has also defeated Valley. Prediction: Iowa City High 58, Pleasant Valley 54.
No. 2 Des Moines Roosevelt (20-2) vs. No. 7 Valley (18-5): The Roughriders are on a roll, riding a 19-game winning streak into the tournament. They racked up a lot of wins against overmatched CIML opponents, but they also defeated both Waukee schools and Southeast Polk before edging No. 10 Ankeny, 49-47, on a last-second basket by Amaya Davison in the regional final. Roosevelt advanced to state despite getting a subpar game from Iowa State recruit Arianna Jackson, who scored just six points on 2-of-9 shooting. Valley ended January with back-to-back losses to Johnston and Iowa City High, but has since reeled off five straight wins. The Tigers have allowed 30 or fewer points in their last four games, including a 50-30 victory over Iowa City West in the regional final, when the Trojans were held to just 22.9 percent shooting from the field (8-of-35). Both of these teams rely on balanced attacks, but Jackson might be due to have a big game following her struggles from behind the arc against Ankeny. Prediction: Roosevelt 54, Valley 51.
No. 3 Ankeny Centennial (20-3) vs. No. 6 Waterloo West (21-2): The Jaguars are making their fourth state tournament appearance and have won two of their previous three quarterfinal matchups, including a 47-45 win over Southeast Polk a year ago when Jackie Pippett scored at the buzzer to complete a comeback from a 14-point deficit. Waterloo West is back in the tournament for the third straight year and boasts a trio of Division I players, led by junior guard Halli Poock and junior forward Sahara Williams, who both average 20 or more points. The success of Centennial’s program has been built around a rock-solid defense, but the Jaguars will be severely tested by the talented Wahawks, whose only two losses came to fellow Class 5A qualifier Iowa City High. Waterloo West rolled to a 75-52 victory in the regional final over Southeast Polk, a team that lost to Centennial by seven points earlier in the season. The Rams are the only common opponent for the two teams, but Centennial has improved tremendously since that Nov. 30 contest. The Jaguars usually find a way to slow down their opponent’s best players, and coach Scott DeJong has had four days since the regional final to devise a game plan for Poock and Williams. Prediction: Ankeny Centennial 52, Waterloo West 48.
