The state softball tournament gets under way on Monday at Fort Dodge, and the Class 5A field boasts five teams from the CIML Conference–including top-ranked Ankeny Centennial and No. 2 Ankeny.
Three squads from eastern Iowa will try to pull off an upset in Monday’s quarterfinals. The other quarterfinal will be an all-CIML matchup between No. 4 Southeast Polk and No. 5 Valley.
Wednesday’s semifinals could be an all-CIML affair, and Thursday’s championship game will be an all-Ankeny battle if the seedings hold up like they did during regional play–when the top eight teams in the final rankings all advanced to state.
Ankeny Fanatic is predicting a crosstown showdown for the Class 5A crown, but I’m not prepared to pick the winner of that game just yet. If it materializes, then I will preview Thursday’s game after seeing how the earlier contests unfold. (See below for the rest of my bracket.)
For now, though, let’s break down Monday’s slate of games. Here are Ankeny Fanatic’s predictions for the quarterfinals:
No. 1 Ankeny Centennial (33-5) vs. No. 8 Bettendorf (29-10): The Jaguars are ranked No. 1 for a reason; they have been the most consistent team in Class 5A all season. Centennial went 6-4 against the other CIML teams in the field, going 2-1 against both Ankeny and Waukee Northwest while splitting doubleheaders against Southeast Polk and Valley. The Jaguars have not lost back-to-back games, and they rolled past their regional opponents–Des Moines East and Ames–by a combined margin of 17-3. Centennial senior pitcher Lauren Gustofson has allowed just one earned run over 11 innings in the postseason, but eighth grader Lauren Sandholm leads the team with a 1.12 ERA and will likely make a big impact at some point this week, perhaps even in Monday’s game. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, needed a late rally to beat Dubuque Hempstead in a regional final. Anything can happen in a one-game setting, but a Bettendorf win would qualify as a huge upset. Prediction: Ankeny Centennial 8, Bettendorf 3.
No. 4 Southeast Polk (30-9) vs. No. 5 Valley (34-8): The Rams swept their conference rival by scores of 12-0 and 12-9 on June 7. They pounded out six home runs in the first game, three of them by Addison Brunner, who has 12 roundtrippers on the season. Teammate Sydney Potter also homered in that game and is one of the state’s top power hitters, boasting a .473 average with 16 homers and 54 RBIs. Valley, though, has won 13 of its last 14 games. The Tigers dropped a 13-3 decision at Centennial in the first game of a doubleheader on June 21, but then cruised to a 9-3 win in the nightcap and have been on a roll ever since, losing only once to Muscatine on July 1. Valley overcame a 7-3 deficit to beat Johnston in a regional final, and the Tigers are riding a wave of momentum. This could be the best game of the day. Prediction: Valley 7, Southeast Polk 6.
No. 2 Ankeny (31-6) vs. No. 7 Muscatine (32-6): The Hawkettes, who advanced to state for the first time since 2015, held on for a 4-3 win over Waukee in a regional final. They are riding an 11-game winning streak and have not lost since dropping a 7-3 decision at Fort Dodge on June 21. Ankeny coach Dave Bingham said the goal for his team every game is to score at least seven runs while giving up two runs or less. The Hawkettes accomplished their goal in 15 of the 37 games. Muscatine has won its last seven games, including a 2-0 win over Iowa City Liberty in a regional final. Two of the Muskies’ losses came to Williamsburg, a team that Ankeny defeated, 8-0, on June 17. The two teams have nearly identical records, but only one of them played in the best conference in the state. Prediction: Ankeny 7, Muscatine 2.
No. 3 Waukee Northwest (31-11) vs. No. 6 Pleasant Valley (30-9): The defending state champion Wolves defeated Pleasant Valley twice during the regular season, 13-1 on June 3 and 9-4 on June 30. Northwest earned another trip to state by posting a pair of one-run victories during regional play. The Wolves held on for a 4-3 win over Urbandale, then outlasted Des Moines Lincoln, 2-1, in 10 innings. Pleasant Valley’s Jessie Clemons is batting .447 with 12 homers and 37 RBIs, but she’ll be facing one of the state’s top pitchers in Maddie Oetzmann, who has an 18-7 record with a 1.81 ERA. The Wolves need three more wins to defend their title, and I think they’ll move one step closer. Prediction: Waukee Northwest 5, Pleasant Valley 3.
