The players on the court may not be the only people wearing shorts on Monday at Wells Fargo Arena.
With a forecast calling for a high temperature of 75 degrees, it’s not going to feel like girls’ state basketball tournament weather in Des Moines. But perhaps the unseasonably warm February day will be appropriate–because the action on the court could be heated as well.
The tournament begins on Monday with the Class 5A quarterfinals, which will feature five teams from the CIML Conference. Leading the way is top-ranked Johnston, which went undefeated during the regular season and will be looking to reach the title game for the fifth consecutive year.
The Dragons are seeking their third state championship during that stretch. They’ve won 115 of 121 games since the start of the 2019-20 season.
This year, Johnston has been as dominant as ever, winning every game but one by 10 points or more and earning a No. 19 national ranking. The only close call came on Jan. 26, when the Dragons posted a 64-59 victory at Ankeny Centennial.
Can Johnston match its accomplishment from two years ago, when the Dragons became the first team ever in Class 5A to go undefeated? I do expect coach Chad Jilek’s squad to cut down the nets on Friday night–after beating three of its rivals from the CIML Conference. (See below for my entire bracket.)
For now, though, let’s break down Monday’s slate of games. Here are Ankeny Fanatic’s predictions for the quarterfinals:
No. 1 Johnston (23-0) vs. No. 8 W.D.M. Valley (13-10): The Dragons already own two wins over Valley–they posted a 67-50 road victory on Dec. 14, then won the rematch at Johnston in convincing fashion, 59-22, on Jan. 23. Iowa State recruit Aili Tanke averaged 20 points in the two wins for Johnston, while Valley star Elise Jaeger was held to a combined 16 points and may still be dealing with a sore ankle that she injured during a loss to Ankeny on Feb. 9. The Tigers shot just 16.1 percent from the field (5-of-31) in the last game, when they also committed 19 turnovers. A Valley win would be one of the biggest upsets in state tournament history. Prediction: Johnston 65, W.D.M. Valley 38.
No. 4 Waukee (18-4) vs. No. 5 Ankeny Centennial (14-8): The Warriors won both meetings during the regular season by an average of 10.5 points. Waukee posted a 51-37 triumph at Centennial on Dec. 15, then defeated the Jaguars again, 60-53, on Jan. 23. The Warriors boast four players averaging in double figures, including sophomore Maryne Szalo, who had a double-double with 15 points and 10 rebounds in the win at Centennial. In the rematch, Emilie Sorensen poured in 19 of her 23 points in the second half and went 7-of-11 from the field, including 5-of-7 from 3-point range. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rely heavily on the 1-2 punch of juniors Mya Crawford and Jaeden Pratt, who averaged 15.5 and 12.0 points, respectively, in the two games. Crawford has been one of the state’s best players down the stretch, scoring a career-high 22 points in three of the last seven games. Centennial will need another big game from the versatile point guard, and I think the Drake recruit will carry the Jaguars to a mild upset. Prediction: Ankeny Centennial 52, Waukee 49.
No. 2 Davenport North (22-2) vs. No. 7 Cedar Falls (22-1): Both teams are riding long winning streaks. The Wildcats have won 22 straight games since opening the season with a pair of losses to out-of-state opponents, while the Tigers have won 20 in a row since losing in overtime at Ankeny, 60-55, on Nov. 21. North is led by Divine Bourrage, who averages nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. But she has had to shoulder a heavy load since fellow junior Journey Houston suffered a season-ending knee injury in late January. Cedar Falls’ Grace Knutson averages 22.7 points and has made 98 3-pointers, shooting 39.4 percent from behind the arc. The Tigers have played a weaker schedule than North, which owns a pair of wins over defending champion Pleasant Valley. But I think Cedar Falls will find a way to slow Bourrage down. Prediction: Cedar Falls 55, Davenport North 50.
No. 3 Dowling Catholic (19-4) vs. No. 6 Pleasant Valley (19-4): This is a rematch from last year’s tournament, when the Spartans rolled to a 50-33 win and then went on to beat Johnston in the final. Pleasant Valley’s Halle Vice scored 18 points in that game, but she is now playing for Marquette. This year, the Spartans went 0-2 against the CIML Conference during the regular season, including a 43-36 loss to Dowling in the Winter Tip-Off Classic on Dec. 16 at Johnston. Pleasant Valley raced out to a 13-0 lead in that game and still led, 34-28, before being outscored in the fourth quarter, 15-2. The Maroons won despite getting just six points from Creighton recruit Ava Zediker, who made only 2-of-11 shots from the field. This one will likely be another defensive battle, but look for Dowling to move on. Prediction: Dowling Catholic 47, Pleasant Valley 41.
