The Class 5A state softball tournament will get under way on Monday with four opening-round games at Harlan Rogers Park in Fort Dodge. All of the Class 5A games on the first three days of the tournament will be played on Triton Field, one of the new east diamonds.
This year’s tournament will be played under a double-elimination format for the first time ever. The Class 5A bracket will consist of two four-team pods, with the survivor of each pod advancing to Friday’s winner-take-all championship game at 7:30 p.m. on the Channel Seeds Field.
Five teams from the CIML Conference advanced to the tournament, and four of them are grouped together in the lower half of the bracket. Second-ranked Ankeny Centennial (38-3) will face No. 7 Dowling Catholic (20-16) on Monday at 4:15 p.m.; No. 3 Valley (33-8) will then play No. 6 Southeast Polk (24-16) at 6:30 p.m.
The Class 5A tournament will begin at 11:45 a.m. with a matchup between No. 1 Waukee Northwest (36-4), the defending champion, and No. 9 Pleasant Valley (25-12). No. 4 Dallas Center-Grimes (29-6) will meet No. 5 Cedar Rapids Kennedy (33-8) at 2 p.m.
Here is Ankeny Fanatic publisher Dan Holm’s breakdown of the Class 5A field:
THE TEAM TO BEAT
Until somebody knocks the defending champs out of the tournament, it has to be the Wolves. Northwest finished a game behind Centennial in the CIML Conference race, but none of the team’s four losses came with sophomore star Sophia Schlader in the pitcher’s circle. Schlader has compiled a 25-0 record with a 0.69 ERA and 265 strikeouts. She ranks first in Class 5A in strikeouts and second in both wins and ERA. And, oh yeah, Schlader also wields a potent bat. She is batting .494 with 17 home runs, which is tied for third in Class 5A. Northwest already owns victories over Pleasant Valley and Dallas Center-Grimes. In a 2-0 win over the Mustangs on June 6, Schlader tossed a two-hitter with no walks while racking up 16 strikeouts. She also went 2-for-3 at the plate, where she blasted a two-run homer in the fifth inning for the game’s only runs. About a week later, the Wolves posted a 5-2 win over Pleasant Valley in the DJ Classic at North Scott–and they did it without Schlader, who missed nine games this season while playing for her club team. It’s hard to see Northwest losing twice in the first three days, especially if Schlader handles most of the pitching duties.
THE TOP CONTENDER
No team in the state has a better lineup than Centennial, which has averaged more than 9 runs a game while hitting a state-record 84 home runs. Eleven different Jaguars have left the park, and four of them rank among the top 12 in Class 5A in home runs. Jordyn Kennedy ranks second with 18, Kori Lincicum is tied for third with 17, Mady Ott is tied for eighth with 14, and Mylie Hatfield is tied for 12th with 13. Centennial also boasts a deep pitching staff that could pay off in the double-elimination format. If the Jaguars were to lose one of their first two games, they would then have to win three times on Wednesday in order to reach the title game. But Centennial coach Brett Delaney has multiple arms that he can rely on if that happens, led by the dynamic duo of sophomore Peyten Spiegel and junior Lauren Sandholm. Spiegel boasts a 16-1 record with a 1.20 ERA and 121 strikeouts, while Sandholm is 12-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 91 strikeouts. Much like Northwest, it’s hard to see the Jaguars losing twice during bracket play.
A POSSIBLE DARKHORSE
Northwest and Centennial have been ranked 1-2 in Class 5A all season, but Valley has quietly been the best of the rest while finishing just behind the Jaguars and Wolves in the CIML Conference. The Tigers handed Northwest one of its losses on June 24 and then became the only team other than the Wolves to beat Centennial on July 8, when they posted a 6-2 victory in the first game of a doubleheader to hand Spiegel her only loss. Valley has gone 22-4 since dropping an 11-2 decision to the Jaguars on June 11 and will certainly provide a huge challenge for Centennial during bracket play. The Tigers have shown that they can beat the top two teams, but can they do it twice over the span of 24 hours?
A PREDICTION
I’m not going to make a game-by-game forecast because the tournament could get a little crazy with the double-elimination format, but I do expect Northwest and Centennial to meet for the fourth time in Friday’s championship game–which isn’t exactly going out on a limb. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Wolves cruise through bracket play without dropping a game–they are that good when Schlader is on top of her game. The Jaguars’ road to the final appears to be considerably tougher, but this is a team that just finds a way to win. They overcame deficits to win several times during the second half of the season, including a dramatic rally when they were down to their final out to beat Dowling, 9-8, on July 1. Delaney’s squad is on a mission to capture its second state title in four years, and Centennial might be a team of destiny following some of its incredible comebacks. The Jaguars showed on June 4 in a 6-5 loss to Northwest that they can hit the ball off Schlader, pounding out four doubles among their seven hits. They won’t be intimidated by facing her again. The Wolves, meanwhile, have yet to see Spiegel in the circle this season–and that was likely a strategic decision on Delaney’s part. My gut tells me that the Centennial players will be bringing home the Class 5A trophy on Friday night.
