One of the most anticipated games in the history of the Iowa Girls’ High School Athletic Union state softball tournament will be played Friday night on the Channel Seeds Field at Harlan Rogers Park in Fort Dodge.
Top-ranked and defending champion Waukee Northwest (39-4) will play No. 2 Ankeny Centennial (41-3) for the Class 5A championship at 7:30 p.m. The two squads have been ranked 1-2 all season.
The CIML Conference rivals appeared to be on a collision course ever since their first meeting on June 4, when the Wolves posted a 6-5 win at Centennial. The Jaguars later split a doubleheader at Northwest on June 25, using a six-run rally in the seventh inning for a 9-7 victory in the nightcap that ended a four-game losing skid in the series.
It seemed almost inevitable that Centennial and Northwest would meet again for a fourth time on the final day of the season, especially with the new double-elimination format at the state tournament that only reaffirmed what many people believed all along–that the Jaguars and Wolves were by far the best two squads in Class 5A.
It’s the immovable object vs. the irresistible force.
Who has the edge in this epic battle?
Here’s a closer look at the matchup from Ankeny Fanatic publisher Dan Holm:
OFFENSE
Edge: Centennial
The Jaguars average 9.1 runs a game behind a potent lineup that has blasted 92 home runs to shatter the all-time state record for homers in a season. Jordyn Kennedy and Kori Lincicum lead the way with 18 homers apiece. Mady Ott has homered three times in the last two games and now has 17, while Mylie Hatfield hit a grand slam on Monday in a win over Dowling Catholic for her 14th of the year. Northwest’s offense is productive, but not nearly as explosive. The Wolves average 6.0 runs a game and have only hit 36 home runs–with half of them coming from sophomore star Sophia Schlader. Kenley Sanger (10 homers) and Maya Twigg (4) are the only other Northwest players with more than one homer. Both teams went unbeaten this week during bracket play, but they won in drastically different ways. Centennial scored a total of 30 runs in just 17 innings, while Northwest played a full seven innings and scored just four runs in all three of its wins. If the game becomes a slugfest, the Jaguars appear to have a lot more weapons.
PITCHING
Edge: Northwest
The Wolves boast one of the nation’s best players and most dominant pitchers in Schlader, who has compiled a 28-0 record with a 0.69 ERA and 292 strikeouts. She has tossed all 21 innings at the state tournament, giving up just two earned runs on nine hits while racking up 27 strikeouts. Schlader’s only loss over the last two seasons came a year ago at North Polk, where the Wolves gave up two unearned runs and dropped a 4-3 decision. Centennial will likely counter with sophomore Peyten Spiegel, who has yet to face the Wolves this season. Spiegel is 18-1 with a 1.39 ERA and 129 strikeouts. The Jaguars could also give the ball to junior Lauren Sandholm (12-0), who has thrown a pair of shutouts in the postseason. Few teams can match Centennial’s 1-2 punch in the circle, but neither Spiegel nor Sandholm is as dominant as Schlader–who has limited opposing batters to a .097 average.
DEFENSE
Edge: Northwest
The Wolves have committed only 20 errors all season, less than half of Centennial’s total of 41. Part of that can be attributed to Schlader, whose brilliance in the circle means that fewer balls will be put into play by opposing batters. But Northwest has played 101 innings this season using pitchers other than Schlader, so the Wolves have consistently been able to make the routine plays. Northwest allows just 1.5 runs a game, while Centennial gives up an average of 2.7. The Jaguars are no slouch on defense, but they did commit a combined six errors in the two losses to Northwest this season. If they want to bring home the title, they can’t afford to give the Wolves any free outs.
BENCH
Edge: Centennial
Perhaps no team in the state is as deep as Centennial, which has gotten key contributions from its bench all season. Sophomore catcher Emmy Ott didn’t play on Tuesday, but then returned to the lineup on Wednesday and slugged a pair of home runs in the win over Southeast Polk that punched the Jaguars’ ticket to the championship game. Junior Addi Frederick had a pinch-hit, RBI single in each of the last two games and is now batting .429 on the season. She would likely start for most teams. The Jaguars are so loaded that junior Audrey Sandholm, a Missouri State recruit, has been used primarily as a pinch-runner–and she ranks fifth on the team with 35 runs scored.
COACHING
Edge: Even
Centennial coach Brett Delaney has compiled a 247-72 record in eight seasons at the school. He has led the Jaguars to four state tournaments and is trying to win his second title in the last four years. Carrie Eby coached at Waukee before starting the Northwest program in 2022. She boasts a career record of 529-132, including a 180-36 mark with the Wolves. Eby has led her teams to 11 state tournament appearances in 16 years of coaching. She won the first of her three state championships at Waukee in 2015 and is now trying for her third crown at Northwest, where she won titles in both 2022 and 2025. Eby has won 80.0 percent of the games in her coaching career, while Delaney has won at a 77.4 percent clip. There isn’t much to separate these two veteran coaches.
INTANGIBLES
Edge: Centennial
The Jaguars have shown an uncanny ability to rally from huge deficits this season, including overcoming a 9-1 hole to win the first game of a doubleheader at Waukee, 11-9, on June 17. This is just a team that knows how to win. Northwest, meanwhile, has blown a lead in each of its last two losses, including the one to Centennial. Neither loss, though, came with Schlader in the circle. The Jaguars are truly never out of any game with their potent bats, but falling behind Northwest and trying to rally against Schlader would be a tough hill to climb.
PREDICTION
Centennial 5, Northwest 4
Delaney told me Thursday on the Ankeny Fanatic weekly podcast that runs will be hard to come by, but I think the Jaguars will be in a position to win if they can match what they did against Schlader last month–when they scored five runs on seven hits, four of them doubles. Spiegel has been so good all season, and if she can limit the Wolves to the same amount of runs that they’ve been scoring all week–perhaps with a little help from Sandholm–Centennial will have a good chance to avenge last year’s loss in the Class 5A semifinals.
